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Heat pump market long-term forecast

2024 was a year of challenges for the heat pump industry. Around 2.31 million heat pumps were sold in 19 European countries, a drop of 22% on 2023 levels. This had a significant impact on manufacturers, their employees and shareholders. The most extreme cases were the Czech Republic with sales declining 64% and Germany with a 48% drop. However, the UK bucked the trend with a 56% increase in sales. The countries with the highest sales in terms of units were France with 546,000 heat pumps sold, and – quite far behind – Italy with around 348,000 units. In terms of sales per 1,000 households, the leaders in 2024 were Norway with 48 sales per 1,000 households, and Finland with 33.


What’s more, EHPA has been able to gather estimated sales for 2024 from nine additional European countries for the first time. This was done by using 2023 sales figures from the EurObserv’ER Heat Pump Barometer 2024 and adding 2024 sales estimates from heat pump manufacturers. These are Bulgaria with 8,000 heat pumps sold; Croatia with 8,000; Cyprus 3,000; Greece with 18,000, Latvia with 4,000; Luxembourg 1,000; Malta 6,000, Romania with 10,000 and Slovenia with 13,000. However, these countries have not been included in any comparisons concerning sales over time or stock, since only numbers for 2024 are available. From the original countries, those with the highest total amount of installed heat pumps are France with a stock of around 6.5 million and Italy with just under 4.2 million. In terms of total installed heat pumps per 1,000 households, the leaders in 2024 were Norway with approximately 630 heat pumps for every 1,000 households, and Finland with just above 520.


For the heat pump sector to grow and tap its potential, stability and predictability are essential for investors, citizens and manufacturers. A clear Europe-level strategy to accelerate heat pump deployment is needed, alongside electricity pricing that makes heat pumps the most competitive option. It is also crucial that European governments swiftly implement the EU Green Deal policies, such as the renewable energy and energy efficiency targets for 2030. The EU’s upcoming Emissions Trading System 2 – which will put a price on carbon emissions from heating and transport – will be a very useful piece of this, providing up to €65 billion via the Social Climate Fund to accelerate the deployment of heat pumps and other clean technologies. Driving heat pump roll-out will in turn drive investment in European manufacturing and jobs, boosting competitiveness and energy security. 


SOURCE: EHPA